Statistical research and strategies
Introduction
The study is designed as a statistical and case investigation, as well as a mixed approach to involving a quantitative and qualitative position. As for the type of research, this is of a correlational nature and then determine causal mechanisms. To address these positions without falling into contradictions, but to complement and deepen the analysis and quality of the conclusions to be obtained, two -stage investigation has been designed: phase 1 – quantitative. In this space, data referring to the 221 cantons will be collected. The data to be used will correspond to the years 2010-2020, which constitutes a period of ten years conducive to assess social and economic development.
Developing
It is considered to take some elements of the 2020 census, by the INEC by Presidential Decree 684. In addition, the Organic Code of Territorial Organization, Autonomy and Decentralization (COOTAD), which was approved in 2010 and constitutes the main norm for municipalities. Of the selected period are three mandates of mayors and mayors, 2010-2014 (initiated in 2009);2014-2019;2019-2020, being the latter still in office. For the evaluation of fiscal and political decentralization, as an independent variable, quantitative techniques, data from bases and institutional information will be used, to, through statistical methods.
Define a decentralization index. Information exists at the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INEC), the Central Bank of Ecuador (ECB), the Ecuador Development Bank (BDE), the Ministry of Finance (MF), the Association of Municipalities of Ecuador (AME) and the National Electoral Council (CNE). For the evaluation of the degree of Social and Economic Development, the dependent variable, the information raised by institutions that have development statistics such as the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INEC), the Ministry of Education (ME) and theCentral Bank of Ecuador (ECB).
To establish if there is an association between both variables, a correlation coefficient and regression models will be applied. Additionally, cantonal data may be segmented according to the type of sector (urban – rural), or by the size of its population, which allows you to deepen the analysis. Phase 2 – Qualitative: The previous quantitative analysis will provide data to establish the degree of association between both variables given the conditions presented by the cantons. With these data, two cases will be identified and selected that will be submitted to a qualitative analysis. One of the cases will be typical, which shows a behavior similar to the trend.
The second case will be atypical, which demonstrates a behavior outside the trend. At this stage the processes or process traction tracking will be applied that will help to deepen “how and why”, because it allows to know how the variables interact being a feasible method to study causal mechanisms for one or two cases (Bennett and Checkel; Beach and Pedersen). To analyze, understand and argue the behavior of the variables in these two cases, information collection will be used through the technique of interview with representatives of municipal entities and field visits.
In the qualitative stage it has been considered relevant to understand the theoretical contributions (Arellano Yanguas; Acemoglu and Robinson; Easterly) regarding how decisions are really made, who makes them and why the mayors decide to do what they do, regarding fiscal decentralizationand politics. Literature highlights the possible existence of a pact between elites (Fukuyama). It is also relevant to understand how vertical political negotiations are between the Municipal Government-Central-Governments, and horizontal, among the mayor with: councilors, secretaries and managers of public companies.
The relevance of considering local representatives, in the “Quality of Life and Institutional Development in the Colombian oil municipalities, 2000-2010” must be pointed out, the political fragmentation was analyzed in the Council of the Mayor’s Office, but it was not taken into accountThe power that municipal secretaries and public companies may have, where even, in some cases, work directly to reduce unsatisfied basic needs. This I could check through two interviews that I conducted, in July 2019, an official of the Development Planning Department, “Laura” fictional name;and to the Director of Institutional Development of the Municipality of Quito, Rita Yepes.
In addition to the proposed analyzes, it is considered appropriate for the investigation to interview authors who have addressed topics referring to the subnational level. The goal is to interview: Karla Alvarez, María Elena Bernal, Elisa Donadi or Javier Díaz-Caseou, of the Development Bank of Ecuador and the Inter-American Development Bank. Authors of "Subnational Finance in Ecuador 1993-2008, and 2000-2014". Variables and indicators. The independent variable, fiscal and political decentralization, will be measured through the following dimensions and indicators: fiscal decentralization: autonomy index.
In "Decentralization, subnational finance and fiscal equalization in Ecuador" by Javier Díaz-Caseou, the unequal capacity of municipalities to generate own income is quantified. Own income / total expenses. Represents the relationship between the income generated by the municipality, and the degree to which they allow to cover the total expenses. With information obtained from the databases of the Municipal Information System (SIM), the Ministry of Finance and the Development Bank of Ecuador. Based on Daughters and Harper, Arellano Yanguas, Niño and Stein et al. Central Government Transfers Dependency Index.
Political decentralization: quality of bureaucracy as capacities of municipalities to contribute to development. The weakness of bureaucracy has become the region in one of the causes of the lack of effectiveness of development policies that have the State as an important actor. In addition, the public service occupies a central place in the elaboration and implementation of the policies and in the relationship established between the State and the citizens. Hence, its proper functioning and efficiency are a key point in the success or failure of any project and the fight against inequalities and poverty.
Civil Service Quality. In "the policy of public policies" and in "Report on the situation of civil service in Latin America", the method to elaborate this index that makes meritocracy, efficiency and capacity is exposed. The quality of the bureaucracy is expressed through the Civil Service Development Index, the literature argues that it is important that there is an adequate transparency in the subnational institution, this, in part, avoids the co -optation of power groups or client networks. Although there is a part of the information at the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INEC), the Association of Municipalities of Ecuador (AME).
The Ombudsman (DP) and the Observatory of Transparency of Municipal Governments of the Citizenship and Development Foundation, it is considered prudent to apply only the qualitative part for the two selected cases of the quantitative phase, since generating a new database on quality on quality databasesof the bureaucracy for 221 cantons would be an ambitious project where several research assistants would be required . Bureaucracy as the capacity of subnational governments that affect development is based on Fukuyama, Acemoglu, García-Jimeno and Robinson, Daughters and Harper and Pinilla, Jiménez and Montero.
Index of representativeness of civil society participation. Number of representative participation mechanisms compared to the size of the cantonal population. Expresses the number of instances that promote and allow the participation of civil society in the decisions of the local government, compared to the total size of the cantonal population. With data from the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INEC), the Association of Municipalities of Ecuador (AME), the Ombudsman (DP) and the National Electoral Council (CNE). This is based on Carranza and Tuesta and Boisier.
Distribution and balance of powers. Effective number of parties represented in local political spaces such as municipal councils. Competitiveness between the two most voted games in the municipal councils. Political decentralization advocates democracy represented by the diversity of political parties in the instances of the local government, chosen through electoral processes. To perform these calculations there are databases in the National Electoral Council (CNE). This information is based on Fukuyama. The dependent variable, social and economic development, will be measured from the following dimensions and indicators:
- Cantonal Human Development Index
- % health (morbidity and mortality associated with poverty) of the total population
- % of school abandonment in basic education and high school
- % of graduates in secondary education
- Gross income per capita and cantonal added value
These indicators provide information on the level of social and economic development through data from the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INEC), the Ministry of Education, the Central Bank of Ecuador (ECB) and the United Nations Development Program (UNDP).
conclusion
Economic growth. Annual provincial GDP growth rate. This indicator represents a growth of the local economy considering the added value of production. Data will be taken from the Central Bank of Ecuador (ECB). Social development. % variation in access to basic services. This indicator considers the percentage of access to services that cover basic needs such as drinking water, hygienic services, garbage collection. Data from the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INEC) are obtained.
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